Mamdani’s NYC mayoral lead narrows but holds at 16 points in Fox poll

Within the race for mayor of New York Metropolis, Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani’s lead has narrowed since early October, however he’s nonetheless forward by double digits, and his lead stays intact in a hypothetical two-way race.

The evaluation beneath focuses on doubtless voters in New York Metropolis.

The newest Fox Information Ballot, launched Thursday, exhibits Mamdani with a 16-point lead, with 47% backing him, whereas 15% favor Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa and 31% favor unbiased candidate Andrew Cuomo.

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Mamdani’s lead has narrowed since mid-October, when he was 24 factors forward and above the 50% threshold (52% help). Help for Cuomo has elevated by 3 factors and that of Sliwa stays unchanged (+1).

Unbiased candidate and present mayor Eric Adams acquired 2% help regardless of withdrawing from the race on September 28. Adams will nonetheless seem on the poll.

Mamdani’s strongest help comes from very liberal voters (85%), younger individuals below 30 (73%), men and women below 45 (69%, 65%) and Democrats (61%). He has misplaced some floor towards younger ladies and Democrats (4 factors fewer in every group).

For Cuomo, his finest teams are Jewish voters (55%), voters 65 and older (43%), ladies 45 and older (42%), and white voters and not using a school diploma (42%).

Mamdani receives extra help amongst males (51%) than ladies (44%), whereas Cuomo receives extra help from ladies (35%) than males (26%).

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Sliwa has 55% of Republicans, down 7 factors from two weeks in the past. Moreover, in early October, 60% of 2024 Donald Trump supporters supported Sliwa, however at the moment that quantity is just 47%. One other 38% help Cuomo and seven% help Mamdani.

Greater than half of nonwhite voters help Mamdani, together with 52% of black voters and 60% of Hispanic voters, whereas a couple of quarter of nonwhites help Cuomo. Mamdani and Cuomo misplaced floor amongst black voters, every trailing by 4 factors.

Mamdani’s lead shrinks to 10 factors in a hypothetical two-way contest as Cuomo positive aspects help from Republicans, voters 65 and older, ladies and people and not using a school diploma.

Supporters of Mamdani are nonetheless extra enthusiastic (78% extraordinarily or very) about voting than these of Sliwa (59%) or Cuomo (52%).

Furthermore, extra of his supporters are assured they’ll vote for him (91%) than these of Sliwa (83%) or Cuomo (87%). Nevertheless, Cuomo supporters at the moment are 9 factors extra assured about their vote alternative in comparison with mid-October.

Those that are very liberal and younger voters (particularly younger ladies) are amongst these most excited to go to the polls, and greater than 4 in 10 of these below 30 will vote for the primary time.

“Everybody says turnout is essential, however in an off-year municipal election with a controversial, charismatic candidate because the frontrunner, ‘everybody’ is correct,” stated Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who runs the Fox Information Ballot with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Mamdani’s supporters say they’re enthusiastic about voting, however they’re additionally comparatively younger and inexperienced. In the event that they present up, he’ll doubtless attain 50%. If they do not present, Cuomo might get inside single digits.”

Mamdani’s lead on these points has weakened, though he’s nonetheless seen as the perfect man to sort out crucial priorities. Two weeks in the past, 52% stated he might deal with the economic system higher. At the moment it’s down 5 factors to 47%, though he simply surpasses Cuomo (32%). Mamdani’s grade can be decrease on crime (-6 factors) and taxes (-2 factors), however he’s nonetheless higher than Cuomo or Sliwa.

Mamdani’s greatest benefit lies in bringing in regards to the vital change: 50% say he’ll do the perfect job, in comparison with 26% who say the identical about Cuomo and 20% about Sliwa. The candidates are closest to who can competently lead the federal government: 42% Mamdani, 40% Cuomo and 16% Sliwa.

“The principle function of this election is a big generational divide. Youthful voters are hopeful that Mamdani will deliver the required change, whereas seniors worry he’ll destabilize the town,” Anderson stated. “Cuomo has raised issues about public security below Mamdani, and which will have gained him just a few factors. However the clock is operating out and there’s no proof that Mamdani’s help is in peril of collapsing, which might be vital for Cuomo to prevail.”

Mamdani and Cuomo are each rated extra negatively than earlier this month. Mamdani had a internet optimistic score of +23 two weeks in the past, in comparison with +12 at the moment. Cuomo had a internet detrimental favorability score of -1 and now stands at -8.

Whereas their scores stay underwater, each Sliwa and Trump noticed their favorable internet scores improve: Sliwa rose 7 factors and Trump rose 6 factors.

How vital is Israel to New York voters?

The survey asks voters how vital the mayoral candidates’ positions on Israel are for his or her alternative of candidate. Practically half (47%) say extraordinarily or crucial, whereas greater than half (52%) say considerably or in no way.

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Voters are in all probability 5 share factors extra prone to say this can be very vital (27%) than in no way (22%). Whereas about half of every main candidate’s supporters say the problem is vital, Mamdani carries every of those teams – voters say this can be very, very, considerably or in no way vital – at the very least seven factors larger.

This Fox Information Ballot, performed October 24-28, 2025 below the joint path of Beacon Analysis (D) and Shaw & Firm Analysis (R), options interviews with a pattern of 1,107 New York Metropolis registered voters randomly chosen from a statewide voter base. Respondents spoke to reside interviewers on landlines (167) and cell phones (661) or accomplished the survey on-line by following a hyperlink acquired by way of textual content message (279). Outcomes primarily based on the registered voter pattern have a margin of sampling error of ±3 share factors. There was a subsample of 971 doubtless voters and the margin of sampling error was ±3 share factors. The sampling error for outcomes amongst subgroups is larger. Outcomes between subgroups are solely proven if the pattern dimension is at the very least N=100. Along with sampling error, the wording and order of the questions also can affect the outcomes. Sources for creating weight targets embody the latest American Neighborhood Survey, Fox Information Voter Evaluation, and voter base information. Weights are typically utilized to age, race, training, and space variables to make sure that respondent demographics are consultant of the registered voter inhabitants. Probably voters are recognized primarily based on previous voting historical past and self-reported chance of voting.