Tennessee special election pits Democrat Behn against Republican Van Epps

We’ll discover out Wednesday morning whether or not a particular election in Tennessee is mostly a referendum on nation music, pedal bars and bachelor events.

Or, if we are able to glean some deeper political that means from the outcomes of the particular election in Tennessee’s seventh Congressional District.

Democrat Aftyn Behn is attempting to tip the stability in her celebration’s favor in a district that President Trump led by about 20 factors and former Rep. Mark Inexperienced, R-Tenn., received by an identical share final fall.

Behn faces GOPer Matt Van Epps. It is a Republican district. However political observers are watching the race to gauge President Trump’s potential weak spot, a weak spot within the Trump coalition, issues with the Republican model or early indications of a attainable blue wave within the 2026 midterm elections.

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Relying on who you ask, the race for Tennessee’s seventh Congressional District — between Republican candidate Matt Van Epps, a former Division of Normal Providers official, and Aftyn Behn, a Democratic state consultant — could possibly be headed for a photograph end. (George Walker IV/AP Picture)

It was Behn who proclaimed a number of years in the past that she despised Nashville. “I hate the singles, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate nation music. I hate all of the issues that apparently make Nashville an ‘it city,'” Behn complained.

About the one factor Behn neglected in her hostility towards Music Metropolis was dissing The Grand Ole Opry, sizzling hen and Goo Goo Clusters. However when voters vote on Behn on Tuesday, Republicans will face a unique sort of cluster. A Behn victory may sign large issues for Republicans and President Trump heading into the midterm elections.

Behn has been characterised because the “AOC of Tennessee,” a reference to progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. Republicans have definitely mentioned that to Behn, suggesting she is out of alignment with the district, leans too far left and is nearer to the liberal values ​​of New York or Los Angeles than Nashville. Republicans imagine Behn is just a nasty match for Nashville. Sort of like having Unhealthy Bunny carry out on the Ryman Auditorium.

“It should not even be shut. However it’s,” Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., mused on Fox.

So Republicans are pouring in cash to guard the seat. Democrats are pouring in cash to steal the seat. If Democrats overcome the unrest, the celebration should uproot the goalposts at FirstBank Stadium in downtown Nashville and dump them into the Cumberland River. Kind of what Vanderbilt followers did final 12 months when the Commodores upset primary Alabama.

Let’s discover what a Behn victory may imply for Republicans. It may point out that voters are uninterested in President Trump. Or that the GOP model is poisonous. Or maybe it is the continuation of a pattern Democrats loved this fall: near-elect victories by newly elected New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill and newly elected Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger.

However there’s a draw back for Democrats. Sure. They’ll flip the chair round. However a victory may additionally present that the celebration is leaning extra to the left. It will be onerous to argue with success if Behn prevails, no matter her progressive leanings. However this will give different liberals the concept they will win in different purple or purple districts. That would work in opposition to Democrats — particularly since each Republican besides President Trump has highlighted the left-wing politics of newly elected New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

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Democrats will probably must ship extra centrist candidates to the purple areas to regain management of the Home of Representatives. A Behn victory may open the floodgates for a bunch of progressive candidates in aggressive Home districts throughout the nation. Behn’s message — or Ocasio-Cortez’s or Mamdani’s — will not work in most locations the place Democrats must be profitable to grab management of the Home of Representatives.

However what if the Republicans hold the seat and Van Epps wins?

It most likely is dependent upon how a lot.

Sure, there have been 5 particular elections in 2017 — President Trump’s first 12 months initially in workplace — that made Democrats aggressive. They had been all nearer than they need to have been. However the Democrats received none of those. Nonetheless, astute political observers advised there was unpopularity with the president and the Republican agenda. Democrats received 41 seats and gained management of the Home within the 2018 midterm elections.

So even when Van Epps wins, look at the margin. And if Behn wins, see if Republicans downplay it as a result of it was a particular election and the same old citizens simply does not prove for particular elections. Particularly one sandwiched between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

If Republicans hold the seat, the Republican Social gathering will argue that this was a rejection of a leftist like Behn and somebody who stepped out of line. They can even recommend that it’s a Republican seat and that the Republicans ought to win it doesn’t matter what. That is what occurred earlier this 12 months, when there was consternation earlier than two particular elections in Florida. However Reps. Randy Effective, R-Fla., and Jimmy Patronis, R-Fla., each received in March.

If Van Epps wins, one nonetheless has to concentrate to the margin. The seat, final held by former Rep. Mark Inexperienced, broke by greater than 20% for President Trump in 2024. (Nicole Hester/The Tennessean/USA TODAY NETWORK by way of Imagn Pictures)

This is one other issue to keep watch over: the message the press corps and political observers get from the election outcomes. In any case, particular elections are at all times particular. It’s regular for analysts and journalists to search for sure meanings or signposts in these competitions. That was the case within the off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York Metropolis. Typically these observations are spot-on. Different instances they imply nothing. In any case, there’s a tendency to overexpose the outcomes of those competitions. They’re moments in time. It is like listening to a couple bars of a music. Perhaps it tells you numerous concerning the music. Perhaps not.

Home Republicans may panic if Behn wins. There’s a number of grumbling amongst Republicans. Some are pissed off with the best way their management dealt with the federal government shutdown. And others would say Mark Inexperienced and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., can observe swimsuit and attain the exit early.

It is a susceptible time for Republicans within the Home of Representatives. That is one motive why turning this chair may imply one thing extra.

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But it’s uncommon for seats to be flipped in a particular election within the Home of Representatives. Former Rep. Don Cazayoux, D-La., received a particular election in a purple Louisiana district in 2008 after former Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., resigned. However present Sen. Invoice Cassidy, R-La., went on to win that seat within the basic election and serve within the Home earlier than transferring to the Senate.

Former Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, flipped the seat of former Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas, in 2022. However she misplaced reelection that fall.

Former Rep. Mike Garcia, R-California, received a particular election in 2020 after former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., resigned simply months into his time period. Garcia held the seat till Rep. George Whitesides, D-Calif., defeated him a 12 months in the past.

Former Rep. Charles Djou, R-Hawaii, received a particular election in Hawaii in 2010 in opposition to two Democrats: former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, and Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawaii. However Democrats regained the seat in 2012.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, received a particular election in 2022 to flip Alaska’s at-large district from purple to blue after the loss of life of the late Rep. Don Younger, R-Alaska. Younger held the seat for nearly 50 years. However Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, defeated Peltola final 12 months.

The truth that seats are received in particular election upsets doesn’t imply that they’ve completely fallen into the palms of the opposite celebration. Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, who defeated his Democratic predecessor, former Rep. Mary Peltola – herself a particular election winner – is an effective instance. (Invoice Clark/CQ-Roll Name, Inc by way of Getty Pictures)

Briefly, even when somebody turns over a chair, it’s uncommon for her or him to carry the chair for lengthy. Typically solely by means of the subsequent common elections.

So a phrase of warning as you consider Tuesday night time’s election outcomes. If Republicans hold the seat, that is to be anticipated. If Democrats flip the seat, some will argue that is the second coming of the Music Metropolis Miracle.

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However actually, that is most likely not the case.