Analysts question if Trump plan can strip Hamas of weapons and power

The rising Gaza peace framework put in place by President Donald Trump may reshape regional dynamics, however analysts warn that except Hamas is totally stripped of its weapons and energy, it’s going to imply little greater than a lull for the terrorist group earlier than the battle flares up once more.

Dr. Michael Milshtein, head of the Moshe Dayan Discussion board at Tel Aviv College and one among Israel’s main consultants on Hamas, says any plan that assumes the group will disband misunderstands its nature.

“Overlook phrases like peace and coexistence – that will not occur,” he informed Fox Information Digital. Hamas leaders, he defined, have made it clear that they won’t settle for a world mandate or a Tony Blair-style trusteeship. “They’re prepared to let a beauty Palestinian authorities run day-to-day affairs, however Hamas will function behind the scenes, like Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

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File exhibiting {that a} Hamas terrorist takes half in a navy parade. (Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/File Photograph)

Milshtein mentioned Hamas’s rhetoric about “freezing” weapons — fairly than surrendering them — reveals its technique. “They’re prepared to cease strengthening, however to not disarm. They are going to hand over the remnants of their missile infrastructure, however maintain gentle weapons and explosives,” he mentioned. “Hamas will stay in Gaza beneath any situation – as a navy and social power. The struggle might finish, however Hamas stays.”

An Arab supply with data of the negotiations informed Fox Information Digital that he believes Hamas will conform to disarmament – ​​however solely whether it is assured that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not going to resume the struggle or pursue its leaders after they lay down their arms, and admits that part two can be troublesome to barter.

Ghaith al-Omari of the Washington Institute says the present optimism rests on extraordinary regional coordination. “Trump has nice instincts in relation to recognizing openings and alternatives,” he mentioned. “He recognized the second and went for it.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu throughout the Cupboard assembly with US President’s Particular Envoy Steve Witkoff and the President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on October 9, 2025. (Maayan Toaf / GPO)

Al-Omari mentioned the convergence of various types of strain – the assault on Qatari soil is rising Golf anxiousness about instabilityand fears that the battle would unfold have spurred Arab states into motion. “They’ve monumental affect,” he mentioned, “and this time they used it.”

One of the necessary gamers, he emphasised, is Turkey. “Bringing within the Turks was essential,” al-Omari defined. “Ankara had its personal pursuits with Washington and moved rapidly to grow to be a part of the equation.” He mentioned Turkey’s affect over Hamas is each political and private: the nation hosts Hamas leaders, controls monetary channels and gives an ideological mannequin via the ruling AKP celebration. “They’ll say to Hamas: ‘Have a look at us – we began out illegally and unarmed, however we’ve got discovered to work inside the political system. In the event you disarm, you may also grow to be a political group.’”

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That instance, he mentioned, may encourage Hamas to “play the lengthy recreation – step again now, survive politically and await the Palestinian Authority to weaken.” However he warned that this method doesn’t quantity to dismantling Hamas; it merely channels its ambitions into politics fairly than open warfare.

Al-Omari is worried about indicators that Arab unity on disarmament is already faltering. “I’m involved after I hear the Egyptian International Minister say that disarming Palestinian weapons is an inside problem,” he famous. “And Emirati officers have mentioned they might solely ship troops to the Rafah border. That type of derailment is harmful.’

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, left, and US President Donald Trump throughout a roundtable dialogue on Antifa within the State Eating Room of the White Home in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, October 8, 2025. (Francis Chung/Politico/Bloomberg through Getty Photographs)

He mentioned the decisive take a look at will come after the primary part. “If Hamas doesn’t disarm itself, we is not going to have to attend years,” he mentioned. “Issues may flare up once more in a matter of weeks.”

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Basis for Protection of Democracies, mentioned a ceasefire shouldn’t be peace. “That is only a pause,” he informed Fox Information Digital. “There’ll solely be peace if Hamas lays down its arms, provides up any function in Gaza’s governance and Trump’s peace plan is totally carried out. That may require relentless focus from the president and his group to interrupt Hamas’ video games and finish its maintain over the individuals of Gaza.”

Dubowitz dismissed hopes for voluntary compliance. “They are going to by no means surrender willingly,” he mentioned. “They have to be expelled from Gaza and hunted down ruthlessly within the Gaza Strip by the IDF and no matter worldwide safety power is prepared to take motion.”

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Tamir Heiman, a former head of Israeli intelligence, described three potential situations as soon as the hostages are launched and the combating subsides. At finest, Hamas will assist set up an alternate technocratic authorities, supported by worldwide police forces. If the nation refuses, Israel may nonetheless switch restricted safety management to a world power “in separate sectors, steadily,” he mentioned.

File exhibiting {that a} Hamas terrorist takes half in a navy parade. (Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/File Photograph)

The third situation – and in line with him the almost certainly – is that no international power intervenes. “The IDF would stay in areas alongside what we name the yellow line, working as a safety buffer just like southern Lebanon,” Heiman mentioned. Beneath that mannequin, Israel maintains freedom of operation, whereas Hamas retains gentle weapons however is stripped of missiles and rocket factories. “It isn’t peace,” he added, “however it’s managed safety.”

All in all, the analysts paint a cautious image. The Trump group has aligned regional pursuits and achieved uncommon cooperation amongst Arab capitals, they are saying, however sustaining that unity via disarmament and reconstruction would be the true measure of success.

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If Hamas continues to exist as a hybrid militia authorities, consultants warn, the world will quickly uncover that the “peace” is merely a pause between rounds – a pause mistaken for an finish.