Rogers, Stevens tied in Michigan US Senate matchup, poll finds

By Melissa Nann Burke, mburke@detroitnews.com

Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Haley Stevens are successfully tied within the race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat, a brand new statewide survey exhibits, with Rogers displaying a slight edge within the hypothetical matchup.

The survey of 600 doubtless voters in Michigan discovered 44.1% favoring Rogers and 43.7% supporting Stevens — a distinction of lower than half a proportion level that falls inside the ballot’s margin of error of 4 proportion factors.

About 12% of voters have been undecided. The phone survey was carried out Jan. 2-6 for The Detroit Information and WDIV-TV (Channel 4).

Stevens, a four-term congresswoman from Birmingham, fared greatest among the many three Democratic U.S. Senate candidates in hypothetical contests towards Rogers of White Lake Township, partly as a result of she was the one Democrat who matched his attraction amongst unbiased voters.

Rogers and Stevens have been statistically tied amongst unbiased voters within the survey, with Rogers at 32.7%, Stevens at 31.8% and practically 35% undecided. By comparability, extra progressive Democratic candidates Abdul El-Sayed of Ann Arbor and Sen. Mallory McMorrow of Royal Oak trailed Rogers by 15 and practically 14 proportion factors, respectively, amongst independents.

“Abdul El-Sayed and Mallory McMorrow have an issue with independents that Haley Stevens would not have, and I believe that is actually necessary as a result of for Democrats they must reply the query: Do you wish to win the first, or do you wish to win the final election?,” stated pollster Richard Czuba of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which carried out the survey.

“Once you take a look at these numbers, it is vitally clear that Haley Stevens is the strongest of the three positioned candidates firstly of the yr.”

The battle for the U.S. Senate in Michigan is anticipated to be one of the watched nationally throughout this yr’s midterm elections as nationwide Republicans look to flip the seat of retiring U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township.

The Republican Occasion hasn’t gained a Senate seat in Michigan since 1994, however they’re hopeful Rogers can break that streak after he got here shut in 2024, narrowly shedding to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by about 19,000 votes.

“I will vote for Mike Rogers,” stated ballot respondent Yolanda Thomas, 74, of Harrison Township, a Republican voter who works at an elementary college simply exterior Detroit.

“I am not losing my time with the Democrats. I am not going to vote for them within the common. I like what I learn about him.”

Motivation is rising amongst Democrats

The survey confirmed Rogers main El-Sayed by 6.4 proportion factors (48% to 41.6%) and McMorrow main by 3.3 proportion factors (45.7% to 42.4%) in hypothetical head-to-head matchups.

The ballot included a pattern of 40.6% of doubtless voters who determine as Democrats, 40.3% Republicans and 18.2% independents.

Larry Carr, 65, of Woodhall Township in Shiawassee County, stated he would vote for both of the Democratic Senate candidates over Rogers, whom he known as a “snake within the grass.” Carr, who calls himself an unbiased voter, stated he voted for Slotkin for Senate in 2024.

“I lean extra towards El-Sayed. He is just a little extra progressive. I simply do not go together with the company Democrats anymore. I simply can’t do it,” stated Carr, who took half within the survey.

“We want fighters on the market, who will take these Republicans or these ‘Trump licans’ and meet them head on with the type of nonsense they’re doing. We will not be good guys anymore.”

Specifically, supporters of unbiased gubernatorial candidate Mike Duggan, former mayor of Detroit, may play a vital position within the battle for the Senate, with Duggan voters selecting Stevens over Rogers by 3 proportion factors, Rogers over El-Sayed by 9 factors and Rogers over McMorrow by 7 factors.

“Mike Duggan is a kingmaker on this U.S. Senate race,” Czuba stated, pointing to the state Democratic Occasion’s efforts to assault Duggan.

“This can be a threat for the Democrats. They want the Duggan voters to win. Haley Stevens is the one one successful these Duggan voters proper now. However for those who burn the bridge to the Duggan voters, you threat shedding the U.S. Senate race, to not point out the races that will probably be shut.”

Czuba warned that the motivation to vote, as mirrored within the survey, can be an necessary issue more likely to affect the Senate race.

The brand new survey discovered that Democrats (88%) have been considerably extra motivated to vote than Republicans (72%), a distinction of 16 proportion factors. That is in comparison with January 2024, when Michigan Democrats and Republicans have been about equal of their “remaining” motivation (88%), Czuba stated, recalling Glengariff Group polling on the time.

“Republicans appear to have fairly a motivation downside,” Czuba stated. “It is an actual problem for Republicans.”

When solely “remaining” voters are counted within the head-to-head matchups, Stevens takes a 5-point lead over Rogers (47% to 42%), McMorrow leads Rogers by 3.5 proportion factors (46.2% to 42.7%), and El-Sayed would path Rogers by 3.3 proportion factors (46.6% to 43.3%), the survey discovered. These sorts of fluctuations are uncommon, Czuba stated.

“All of a sudden the Democrats are all in cost, and that is as a result of the Democrats are rather more motivated to vote than the Republicans. However the actuality is, it is not like these doubtless voters aren’t going to vote, proper? A few of them will, a few of them will not,” Czuba stated.

“The underside line is that this Senate race will probably be tight. Michigan will probably be certainly one of six seats that will probably be vital within the U.S. Senate dialog,” he added.

“And the fact is that if the Democrats lose Michigan, the Democrats don’t have any likelihood of taking the U.S. Senate, and so who they choose as their candidate is essential after we take a look at these numbers.”

Republicans have a 52-48 majority within the US Senate.

Rogers forward on title ID

Rogers, a former seven-term congressman, enjoys a robust title identification benefit amongst voters at 71%, though 17.5% view him positively and 18.5% negatively, in accordance with the survey.

El-Sayed, a physician who beforehand ran for governor in 2018, had the best title recognition amongst Democrats at 47%, with 11.6% favorable to 17.7% unfavorable and 52% who had by no means heard of him. Stevens’ title ID got here in at 41.7%, with 15% favorable, 9.2% unfavorable and 58% who do not know her.

McMorrow, a state senator, enters 2026 with 24.3% title ID, which means three out of 4 voters surveyed had by no means heard of her. Notably, Chris Swanson, the Genesee County sheriff who’s working for governor, was higher identified than McMorrow at 29.7%, in accordance with the ballot.

“It is clear that voters keep in mind Rogers, and Republicans love him,” Czuba stated. “Democrats, alternatively, have three candidates who haven’t got a lot figuring out info but. With McMorrow at 24%, nobody is aware of who she is, together with Democrats.”

General, the ballot is nice information for Rogers, famous John Sellek, a advisor who has labored for GOP candidates and is CEO of the agency Harbor Strategic Public Affairs.

“There are lots of people who thought with out Trump he would disappear off the face of the earth,” Sellek stated of Rogers. “We’re a really shut, purple state, with open seat elections, and there’s nonetheless a protracted technique to go.

“There may be quite a lot of work that Democrats must do, as a result of none of them have ever been statewide officeholders earlier than, and none of them have held notably distinguished positions.”

Rogers, in contrast, chaired the Home Intelligence Committee and recurrently appeared on tv to speak about U.S. nationwide safety, Sellek added. He additionally merely ran statewide in 2024, spending thousands and thousands of {dollars} on TV and different promoting on his behalf.

Amongst Democrats, Stevens had the strongest favorable scores amongst Democratic respondents over 65 (21.6% favorable) and amongst Metro Detroit voters (25.5%). Each Stevens and El-Sayed have been rated equally by black voters, with Stevens at 20% favorable and El-Sayed at about 19%, in accordance with the survey. El-Sayed beforehand served as director of the Wayne County Well being Division.

Stevens’ analysis exhibits this can be a “fascinating instance” of why pundits should not base their positions on the prevailing commentary a few candidate on social media, the place D.C. consultants and partisans have derided Stevens as nerdy, out of contact and missing a easy political edge, Sellek stated.

He attributed her attraction amongst unbiased voters partly to her giant base in Oakland County, which will probably be necessary in a statewide major and the place she defeated progressive U.S. Rep. Andy Levin of Bloomfield Township in 2022. In the meantime, McMorrow and El-Sayed are considerably on the identical web page, splitting the anti-Stevens vote, he added.

“I believe in some methods Haley Stevens falls right into a class like (former Governor) Rick Snyder, in that he performed the ‘I am the one cool nerd.’ He wasn’t going to attempt to be slick or slick: He stated, ‘That is me, and this is the reason you must like me and belief me, as a result of what you see is what you get,’” Sellek stated.

“In all of the social media movies that Stevens has completed, it is like, ‘I am simply Haley, I am just a little eccentric, I am just a little goofy, I am just a little nerdy, however I am actually good, I actually care. I struggle arduous,'” he added. “It is not all day, ‘I will take down Trump and let’s go to the No Kings rallies.’”

Unbiased voter Gary Steed, 51, of White Lake Township, stated he would vote for Democrat Stevens or McMorrow for Senate, relying on who has a greater likelihood of successful the final election.

“Mike Rogers? No. The man needs to spotlight the border. We dwell subsequent to Canada. We do not have a border downside right here. … I do not see what they see when it comes to the border, the info and the scare ways,” stated Steed, who took half within the survey.

“Why can we care about stuff like that when you’ll be able to’t afford to feed your loved ones?”

Voter Dale Feigley, 69, of Highland Township, participated within the survey and described himself as an unbiased conservative who plans to vote for Rogers.

Feigley’s greatest downside is larger transparency in authorities — one thing that has disillusioned him with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s administration, he stated. He stated he’s additionally pissed off by the fraud dedicated by undocumented immigrants.

“I believe his background and work within the intelligence group is an asset,” Feigley stated of Rogers. “I heard him speak on the radio and I believe he is sensible. He is sensible to me.”