Venezuela military looks strong on paper but experts say it’s hollowed out

As tensions rise between Washington and the Maduro regime, specialists instructed Fox Information Digital that the Venezuelan navy might look formidable on paper however has been hollowed out by years of corruption, decay and political management. Whereas they are saying Venezuela can not cease a decided U.S. assault, any broader operation could be way more difficult than the White Home is suggesting.

Isaias Medina, a world lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat who denounced his personal authorities on the Worldwide Legal Courtroom, described Venezuela as a criminalized state dominated by drug trafficking networks.

“Venezuela in the present day resembles a fortress constructed on sand wrapped round a prison regime,” he stated, including that any hypothetical U.S. motion would quantity to “expelling a terrorist cartel that arrange store subsequent door and never invade a rustic.”

Medina warned that Venezuela’s dense civilian inhabitants – which can be victimized by the regime – calls for excessive warning. “The one acceptable strategy is an amazing choice for restraint and longer operational timelines, abandoning aims that can not be gracefully achieved.”

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Troopers trip in navy automobiles throughout a parade as a part of Independence Day celebrations in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 5, 2023. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Company through Getty Pictures)

He stated the navy’s capabilities look higher on paper than in actuality, with gear rusting from lack of upkeep and 1000’s of politically appointed generals disconnected from an estimated 100,000 junior troops who might abandon their posts beneath stress.

Retired Vice Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director on the Heart on Cyber ​​and Expertise Innovation on the Basis for Protection of Democracies, instructed Fox Information Digital that Venezuela’s most related risk lies in its air-naval techniques — and even these could possibly be eradicated rapidly.

“It’s important to break this,” he stated. “There may be an air-naval part, which might almost certainly affect our offensive operations,” together with fighter jets, restricted naval vessels and Russian-made surface-to-air missiles.

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Troopers march throughout a navy parade celebrating the 205th anniversary of Venezuela’s independence in Caracas, July 5, 2016. (Carlos Jasso/Reuters)

However Montgomery stated the US might rapidly neutralize them. “We will fairly eradicate the air and maritime risk to U.S. forces within the first two days of a marketing campaign plan,” he stated.

Any U.S. plan focusing on cocaine manufacturing would start with “simultaneous assaults on airfields, plane and air protection weapons techniques to make sure they don’t reply to U.S. assaults on different property.”

Requested whether or not Venezuela may retaliate after such assaults, Montgomery replied: “Not towards an air marketing campaign. No.”

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Members of the Bolivarian Nationwide Guard stand in formation alongside Lake Maracaibo, amid rising tensions with the US, in Maracaibo, Venezuela, on October 26, 2025. (Isaac Urrutia/Reuters)

Montgomery emphasised that whereas air defenses could be eradicated rapidly, a floor operation could be a very totally different story. “They’ve a small skilled military… 65 to 70,000 individuals, lots of whom in all probability do not wish to – they did not be part of the military to struggle,” he stated. The nation additionally has an enormous militia, whose motivation is claimed to depend upon loyalty to Maduro.

However geography and dimension make a land operation a nightmare situation. “Venezuela might be twice the scale of California, with 35 to 40 million individuals,” Montgomery stated. “This might be a particularly difficult floor marketing campaign, particularly if it was a counterinsurgency.”

He added bluntly: “At present I would not do that. I do not advocate it.”

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A crew of Venezuelan Air Power plane fly overhead in the course of the 2025 Industrial Aviation Expo in Maracay, Venezuela, on November 29, 2025. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Company through Getty Pictures)

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Montgomery helps an air marketing campaign that he believes will probably be extra environment friendly than present naval techniques. Citing his expertise main U.S. Navy anti-drug operations, he stated: “Any of those 21 ships might have been apprehended by a mixture of Navy and Coast Guard property and helicopters.” However intelligence usually proved unreliable.

Regardless of years of decline, Venezuela nonetheless has a big, uneven mixture of navy gear. Analysts say this would possibly not cease a U.S. marketing campaign, however might complicate the early phases.

Troopers participate in an train after President Nicolas Maduro deployed the navy throughout the nation to coach civilians amid rising tensions with the USA, in Yagua, Venezuela, September 20, 2025. (Juan Carlos Hernández/Reuters)

The stock reportedly contains 92 T-72B tanks, 123 BMP-3 infantry automobiles, Russian Msta-S artillery, Smerch and Grad missile techniques and an estimated 6 to 10 flyable Su-30MK2 jets. Air protection contains the S-300VM, Buk-M2E and Pechora-2M.

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Venezuela’s deepening ties with Iran, Russia and China proceed to fret U.S. officers.

Jorge Jraissati, president of the Financial Inclusion Group, stated that “figures present that solely 20% of Venezuelans approve of this regime,” warning that there was “no respect for the desire of the individuals” for greater than a decade as Caracas aligns itself with “anti-Western regimes that destabilize the area.”